Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 2.345108 2.492458 2.648679 2.827388 3.027107 3.244542 3.500684
2025-06-01 2.113135 2.311483 2.532405 2.799271 3.116456 3.486115 3.956802
2025-06-08 1.979203 2.207477 2.470501 2.800792 3.211715 3.716619 4.401820
2025-06-15 1.893322 2.145031 2.443199 2.830012 3.330676 3.975777 4.905375
2025-06-22 1.789806 2.050741 2.366121 2.785281 3.344419 4.092283 5.224227
2025-06-29 1.699942 1.965824 2.292564 2.735721 3.342324 4.180727 5.507654
2025-07-06 1.615889 1.882538 2.214654 2.672666 3.313260 4.223783 5.722620
2025-07-13 1.582133 1.860316 2.212683 2.709021 3.422855 4.475822 6.305066
2025-07-20 1.555912 1.845654 2.218645 2.754989 3.548054 4.763070 6.998257
2025-07-27 1.532859 1.833391 2.226234 2.802422 3.677850 5.071142 7.793018
2025-08-03 1.489010 1.791247 2.190581 2.784601 3.705011 5.211807 8.294630
2025-08-10 1.447659 1.750565 2.154684 2.763601 3.724387 5.339704 8.796802
2025-08-17 1.406010 1.708550 2.115910 2.737311 3.735206 5.457575 9.317042
2025-08-24 1.367120 1.668865 2.078655 2.711037 3.743728 5.572144 9.862162
2025-08-31 1.339523 1.643572 2.060514 2.712486 3.797985 5.778465 10.694015
2025-09-07 1.321605 1.630884 2.059637 2.740184 3.898778 6.088620 11.913063
2025-09-14 1.284568 1.590063 2.016065 2.697780 3.872700 6.137935 12.411449
2025-09-21 1.248313 1.549261 1.971042 2.650769 3.834846 6.158050 12.832120
2025-09-28 1.210355 1.505019 1.919508 2.590915 3.769703 6.112740 13.033414
2025-10-05 1.200164 1.499986 1.925894 2.625431 3.880191 6.465844 14.741077
2025-10-12 1.192839 1.498694 1.937613 2.669050 4.011213 6.887936 16.992264
2025-10-19 1.186087 1.497907 1.949888 2.714032 4.148815 7.352360 19.833594
2025-10-26 1.164350 1.474570 1.926687 2.697135 4.162348 7.510715 21.397479